Henry: Understanding Strategic Management 
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Chapter 02
Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995) Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking, Sloan Management Review, 36 (2): 25-40.
Among the many tools a manager can use for strategic planning, scenario planning stands out for its ability to capture a whole range of possibilities in rich detail. By identifying basic trends and uncertainties, a manager can construct a series of scenarios what will help to compensate for the usual errors in decision making — overconfidence and tunnel vision. Through case studies of Interpublic, an international advertising agency, and Anglo-American Corporation in South Africa, the author describes how to build scenarios in a step-by-step process and how to use the resulting stories to plan a company's future.
Link to purchase full article:
http://sloanreview.mit.edu/smr/issue/1995/winter/2/
Ginter, P., and Duncan, J. (1990) Macroenvironmental Analysis for Strategic Management, Long Range Planning, 23 (6): 91-100.
Macroenvironmental analysis is an integral part of systematic strategic planning. Even though the literature on macroenvironmental analysis is fragmented, there are useful guidelines for making sense out of this complex and important aspect of strategic planning. This article highlights five important questions managers should ask about macroenvironmental analysis, develops a model for the process, and summarizes what research and experience tell us about each question.
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