« Home

Home » Politics » Kavanagh et al: British Politics 5e » Student resources » Political commentary » Bouncing to an early general election?

Kavanagh et al: British Politics 5e

Bouncing to an early general election?

Gordon Brown took over as Prime Minister in June and in the few months since, the Labour Party has enjoyed a recovery in the opinion polls. For example, a poll conducted by YouGov on 11th May 2007, the day after Tony Blair's resignation speech, saw the Conservative Party with a 4% lead over Labour. An equivalent YouGov poll held on 10th August 2007 saw the Conservatives stand 10% behind Labour (Labour 42%, Conservatives 32%, Liberal Democrats 14%).

David Cameron in contrast has encountered a number of problems over the past few months. In June his party fell into a public row over the leadership's determination to abandon the party's policy of building new grammar schools. In July the Conservatives came a disappointing third in the Ealing Southall and Sedgefield by elections. David Cameron's trip to Rwanda that followed coincided with flooding in his own constituency.  

These Conservative difficulties coupled to the 'Brown Bounce' which has seen Labour hold a lead over the Conservatives in all opinion polls published in the national press since the end of June, have triggered media speculation that the new Prime Minister may seek his own mandate by calling an early general election. According to media reports, both the Labour Party and Conservative Party are understood to be readying themselves for a snap election. Others report that an election in Spring 2008 is a much likelier prospect.

Recent British political history provides no clear guidance for the new Prime Minister. John Major, the last Prime Minister to take that office without having first won a general election waited until 1992 before calling a general election and proceeding to what was seen at the time as an unlikely victory. Yet James Callaghan famously delayed calling an election in the autumn of 1978 when the opinion polls were favourable. The high profile strike action which came to be known as the 'Winter of Discontent' followed over the winter of 1978/9 and his government was forced into holding an election after being defeated in a vote of no confidence in March 1979.

It would appear however, that the odds do lie slightly in the favour of an incumbent Prime Minister. In the general elections held after 1945, the incumbent Prime Minister has lost on 6 occasions but won on 10. Will Gordon Brown choose to take these odds sooner or later?

Critical Thinking Questions

1. Imagine you are an advisor to Douglas Alexander, the Labour Party's general election co-ordinator. Write a short report outlining the pros and cons of (a) an October 2007 election and (b) an election in Spring 2008 from the Labour Party's perspective.

2. What are the respective difficulties which (a) the Labour Party and (b) the Conservative Party will encounter in attempting to win the next UK general election?

3. Some argue that the Prime Minister's power to call elections should be limited by a system of fixed term elections.  Evaluate the case for and against fixed term elections.