Kavanagh et al: British Politics 5e
Political commentary
Essay questionsKavanagh et al: British Politics 5e
Tony Blair's 'Long Goodbye'
The pivotal event of British politics in September 2006 was Tony Blair's announcement that he would stand down as Prime Minister within a year. In October 2004 Tony Blair had declared that he would not contest a fourth general election as Labour leader, triggering incessant speculation thereafter about a more authoritative date for his departure.
In September 2006 open insurrection spectacularly broke out within the Labour Party thereby frustrating any prospect of a 'stable and orderly transition'. On the 5 September, 17 Labour MPs wrote to Blair asking him to quit. The next day, Tom Watson resigned as a junior defence minister and seven Private Parliamentary Secretaries followed suit the next day. To halt this open revolt, the Prime Minister confirmed on the afternoon of the 7 September that the 2006 Labour Party conference would be his last as leader. The Prime Minister still shied away from setting a specific date, although The Sun claimed that Tony Blair would announce his resignation on the 31 May 2007.
Future historians will be better able to untangle the off-stage machinations behind these events, not least whether they did represent a pre-meditated attempted 'coup' on behalf of Gordon Brown. What is certain is that the Blair-Brown rivalry which has been a key feature of the Labour governments since 1997 has entered its end-game.
While a substantial pool of candidates have declared themselves for the post of deputy leader, thus far only John McDonnell has publicly declared an intent to stand for the party leadership. What is perhaps of greater note, however, is that the Prime Minister has, thus far, pointedly failed to openly endorse the Chancellor as his successor. The conclusion many would draw is that this is deliberate and that the Prime Minister hopes a heavyweight challenger to Gordon Brown will emerge.
What do these events demonstrate for our understanding of contemporary British politics? Firstly, the manner of Blair's departure when it comes will be highly unusual. Blair will join four other post-war Prime Ministers (Eden, Macmillan, Wilson and Thatcher) in resigning while in office. But none advertised their departure in the manner that Blair has done. In retrospect Blair's declaration, even in the vaguest terms in October 2004, that he would be standing down seems unwise. His leadership thereafter has persistently been exposed to question and his authority thereby diluted. In retrospect, the prospect of a 'stable and orderly transition' considerably receded in October 2004. Attempts to force Blair's departure in the manner of September's events were always likely.
That September's open insurrection could emerge leads us to a second obvious observation: the importance of context in facilitating and constraining the exercise of political power. The rebels within the party, many of them widely identified as Blairites, were emboldened and found justification to act because of the conviction, accelerating in urgency after the 2005 election and in response to a revivified Conservative Party, that Tony Blair increasingly represented a liability for Labour. Such disillusionment was not simply a function of the party's slide in the opinion polls. Issues of substance doubtless also contributed, for example, the government's failure to take a harder line against Israel's military action against Lebanon. Nonetheless, that such events should take place is clear evidence of the diminution in power resources available to Blair in late 2006.
Finally, this extraordinary episode is clear evidence, as if any were needed, of the importance of agency in British politics. Had the Prime Minister chosen a different strategy in respect of his departure from office, his and his party's fortunes may have been very different. The significance of agency will also continue to be felt as the Prime Minister undertakes his 'long goodbye'. Not least, the eventual timing of the Prime Minister's resignation will be felt by many of the Labour Party's candidates in the May 2007 local council, Welsh Assembly and Scottish Parliament elections. This timing may exercise a profound influence upon their own political fortunes, along with those of Blair's eventual successor.
Critical Thinking Questions
1) How likely do you think it is that a heavyweight challenger to Gordon Brown might emerge? What would be the political risks and opportunities for such a challenger to Gordon Brown?
2) In American politics, a President nearing the end of his final term in office is often referred to as a 'lame duck President'. How useful would the term 'lame duck Prime Minister' be in reference to Tony Blair after September 2006?
3) What do you think will be the likely political consequences for the Labour Party of Tony Blair's decision to stand down?
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