1950s-1960s

The Origin of Foreign Policy Analysis

Foreign Policy Analysis within the field of International Relations is built upon three paradigmatic works of the late 1950s and early 1960s, as listed below.  The message of these three paradigmatic works persuaded scholars that the particularities of the human beings making national foreign policy were vitally important to understanding foreign policy choice.

Three Paradigmatic Works

1. Decision Making as an Approach to the Study of International Politics by Richard Snyder, Henry Bruck, and Burton Sapin (1954).  In this work, Snyder and his colleagues inspired researchers to look below the nation-state level to the actual players involved.

2. 'Pre-theories and Theories of Foreign Policy' by James Rosenau, in R. B. Farrell (ed.) Approaches in Comparative and International Politics (1966).  Rosenau encouraged the development of actor-specific theory, by underscoring the need to integrate information at several levels of analysis, from individual leaders to the international system, in order to understand foreign policy.

3. Man-Milieu Relationship Hypotheses in the Context of International Politics by Margaret and Harold Sprout (1956).  The Sprouts argued that one needed to look at the 'psycho-milieu' of the individuals and groups making the foreign policy decision.  That is, the international and operational environment or context as it is perceived and interpreted by decision-makers.

1960s-1980s

The First Period in the Evolution of Foreign Policy Analysis

This period was a time of great intellectual effort and excitement, marked by path-breaking work in conceptualization, development of actor-specific theory at various levels of analysis, and methodological explanation.

Classic Foreign Policy Analysis Scholarship

a. Group Decision Making
The process and structure of groups making foreign policy decisions is analysed.  The groups that were studied ranged in size from very small groups to large organizations and bureaucracies.

b. Small Group Dynamics
Social psychologists explored the unique dynamics of decision-making in small groups.  This research was carried into foreign policy analysis: it was discovered that the motivation to maintain group consensus and personal acceptance by the group could deteriorate decision-making quality.

c. Organizational Process and Bureaucratic Politics
Researchers began to study the influence of organization process and bureaucratic politics on foreign policy decision-making.  Organizations and bureaucracies put their own survival at the top of their list of priorities; the organization will jealously guard and seek to increase its turf (relative influence) and strength.  It was found that the ulterior objectives of foreign policy decision 'players' influenced their decision-making.

Comparative Foreign Policy

The sub-field of Comparative Foreign Policy developed as a response to James Rosenau's challenge to build a cross-national and multi-level theory of foreign policy.  Foreign policy behaviour, as disparate as a war, a treaty, or a state visit, could now be compared and aggregated.  Data was collected on a variety of possible explanatory factors to determine patterns by which these independent variables were correlated.  Researchers hoped to emerge with a grand unified theory of foreign policy behaviour applicable to all nations and time periods.

a. Events Data
The collection of 'events data' was used to set up early warning systems that would alert policy makers to crises in the making around the world.  Computerized decision aids and analysis packages began to appear.

b. Integrated Explanations
Research aimed at integrated multilevel explanations.  Independent variables at several levels of analysis were linked by theoretical propositions to types of foreign policy behaviour.

The Psychological and Societal Milieux of Foreign Policy Decision Making

Increasing attention was directed to the mind of the foreign policy decision-maker.  The societal context in which the decision-maker operates is shaped by several factors such as culture, history, geography, economics, political institutions, ideology, and demographics.  Within this societal context, the individual mind is unique in its own personal beliefs, attitudes, values, experiences, emotions, traits, style, memory, national, and self-conceptions.  To better understand foreign policy, researchers directed their attention to the socio-psychological context of the decision-maker.

a. Individual Characteristics
Political psychology was employed to understand the personal characteristics of the decision-maker.  Under certain stressful conditions these individual characteristics would become crucial in understanding foreign policy decisions.  Efforts were made to categorize decision-makers according to their foreign policy dispositions.

In addition, the role of perceptions and images in foreign policy was also an important research agenda during this time.  Misperception in foreign policy situations could have grave consequences, and was furnished by the rampant use of stereotypical images with reference to the 'enemy'.
Research was conducted on 'cognitive constraints', including cognitive bias, heuristic error, the motivation of leaders, cognitive maps, scripts, and schemas, cognitive style, and the life experience of decision makers. 

b. National and Societal Characteristics
The decision-maker's perception of its nation's 'role' in the international arena began to be studied.  Once a 'national role conception' was perceived, decision-makers could make their decisions to fit according to the conceptual mould.

In addition, the study of culture as an independent variable affecting foreign policy came to the forefront; analysts considered that the very process of policymaking might be stamped by one's cultural heritage and socialisation.

1980s-present

Contemporary Foreign Policy Analysis

The end of the Cold War brought with it a renewed interest in actor-specific theory.  An intuitive understanding of this event involves delving into the individual actors themselves: the personalities of the leaders, the activities of various actors, the struggle between domestic players, and so on. From the late 1980s to the present, foreign policy researchers have focused on developing the following themes outlined below.

Theory Development in Decision Making

a. Construction of Meaning and Framing of Situations by Human Agents in International Relations
Human agents interpret situations and problems differently, due to the various personal backgrounds, which influence reasoning.  Researchers have articulated a two-step decision process: in the first step, options that would translate into serious political loss are weeded out; in the second step, alternatives are analysed against one another.

b. Persuasion and Diffusion Undertaken by Framing/Meaning Entrepreneurs within IR; Analysis of Interaction between Competing Entrepreneurs
Representations formed by human agents in foreign policy must first be diffused to others before collective action can follow.  The process by which individual representations are 'diffused' onto others has been under study.  Technology has been useful here, by providing simulation exercises to study how persuasion occurs.

c. Change and Learning by Human Agents in International Relations
Using cognitive mapping techniques, researchers have been able to detect new knowledge structures within the minds of decision-makers; this 'social learning' may enhance understanding between different actors and even facilitate successful negotiations between antagonists.

d. The Study of Human Agents as They Interact in Groups in International Relations
Decision-making in small and large groups remains the subject of ongoing research. Recent works on bureaucratic and organisational influences apply agent-orientated perspectives to explain institutional innovation or variations in foreign policy decisions.

Theory Development Regarding Leader Characteristics

a. Leader Assessment Frameworks
A more systematic tool has been constructed for assessing a leader's foreign policy orientation.  Technology has allowed for a resurgence of operational code analysis: no longer an extremely laborious or time-consuming task, automated content analysis has enabled researchers to perform speedy and accurate analyses of leader characteristics.

b. New Frontiers: Neuroscience, Emotion, and Embodiment
Research in the field of neuroscience is slowly filtering into foreign policy analysis.  Neuroscience, with its discoveries on the workings of the human mind, is poised to contribute largely to our understanding of human decision-making.  The effect of emotions, pain, illness, the genetically determined 'happiness set-point' and other factors of the human body all have implications on decision-making, and therefore also for foreign policy analysis.

Theory Development Concerning Culture, Identity, and Social Groups

a. Construction of National Role Conception Identity by Human Agents within the Nation
Questions of national identity formation are still largely furnished by research on national role conception.  More recently, eclectic methods such as discourse analysis, process-tracing and computational modelling have helped to trace the origin and evolution of identities in conflict.

b. Horizon/Template Analysis
Distinctive patterns of horizon visualisation have been discerned in different cultures, which suggests that an understanding of 'who we are' plays into the understanding of 'what it is we do'.

c. The Influence of Societal Groups
The effect of various social groups on foreign policy behaviour is under study.  Also explored has been the effect of media, and the manner in which media influences the domestic political context of foreign policy decision-making (eg. the so-called 'CNN-effect').